Top 10 FTSE 350 Risers & Fallers Last Quarter

The FTSE 350 experienced heightened volatility last quarter, rising amid prospects of BOE rate cuts, then falling precipitously as the war in the Middle East threatened to raise inflation. Now that investors are getting a little more optimistic about an end to the conflict, traders wonder if the index will surge back to its February highs.

Top Ten FTSE 350 Movers

• Ithaca Energy (ITH) +54.4%
• Harbour Energy (HBR) +51.2%
• Beazley (BEZ) +50.4%
• Senior (SNR) +44.5%
• Ceres Power (CWR) +42.1%
• Hays (HAS) -39.9%
• PageGroup (PAGE) -41.1%
• Aston Martin Lagonda (AML) -41.4%
• Goodwin (GDWN) -46.7%
• Vistry (VTY) -47.6%

Eyeing the Odds of a Rebound

British equities have been trending higher this week as traders focus on comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting an end to the war in the Middle East despite recent signs of military escalation. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told European Council President Antonio Costa that his country "has the necessary will" to end the war but wants guarantees, further fuelling optimism. However, Pezeshkian has issued conciliatory statements in the past that were later contradicted by hardline officials. Still, after five weeks of declines, UK indices might be grasping at any potential news to fuel a rebound.

Meanwhile, the biggest movers in the FTSE 350 index could see further action as the market reacts to the new reality. A quick look at the list shows a few expected patterns, such as energy stocks supported by high crude prices. However, some of the most active stocks have continued their pre-war trend through March and could see further upside or downside depending on the case. Here is what is moving some of the most active stocks on the FTSE 350 over the last three months:

The Top Movers of the War

It's not surprising that the top performers in the index are energy firms, with Ithaca and Harbour outperforming even the majors like BP, as they have no exposure to the Middle East. Ithaca is a pure-play North Sea producer, while Harbour Energy has interests in the UK, Asia, Africa and Mexico. However, it's an upstream producer, meaning it doesn't face any margin compression amid higher input costs for refiners, which has weighed on other major producers. Engineering firm Senior is expected to see heightened demand for defence production and repairs at damaged LNG facilities in the Gulf States. Another engineering firm, Goodwin, is on the opposite end of the spectrum, as the conflict has delayed shipments to customers in the region. 

Losers Are Mostly Unrelated to the Middle East

Among the worst performers, the two recruiting firms, Hays and PageGroup, stand out. Their performance was downward even before the war began, amid a global slump in hiring that goes back to last year. The potential for economic fallout from higher prices only exacerbated their woes.

Moving in Wake of News

Two notable firms ended up on opposite ends of the performance spectrum after large moves in the wake of news. Vistry's shares plummeted at the beginning of March after the company announced lower margins for the year and the retirement of its CEO, raising concerns about the company's future direction. Another sign of trouble was the company's pause in its share buyback. By contrast, around the same time, Beazley received a takeover offer from Zurich Insurance at a whopping 60% premium, sending the share price skyward.